Microsoft knew the web would win 13 years ago -- why do you think they bundled IE with Windows? They knew that internet-based development was the future. Most of the things in HTML5 and in Chrome were already available, at least in primitive form, to IE-targeting developers 10 years ago: video tag --> SMIL, canvas tag --> DirectAnimation, offline storage --> userdata behavior, web apps --> HTAs. The list goes on. Microsoft was at the same place then, that everyone else is at now.
Alas, whoever (I'm looking at you, Bill Gates) greenlighted the abandonment of MSHTML and switching to a 5-year goose chase aka Avalon/WPF is responsible for what could be the biggest blunder in Microsoft's history.
Yet, aside from "platform independence" (which is a fallacy; it's really "vendor independence" since you're simply redefined "platform" from meaning the OS to meaning the collection of web standards), what does HTML5 give you that you couldn't do better (functionality and perf wise) with what you already have, like Flash, WPF, even Win32?
Perf is interesting -- just think how many more CPU cycles are used when running a typical complex web app like Gmail in a browser, compared to how many it would take if it were a native app with the same features and UI. Luckily people have fast enough computers today; 10-12 years ago these types of browser-based apps would bring your computer to a halt, while the native apps would be lightning fast. Unfortunately for Microsoft, when they were way ahead, the hardware just wasn't there.
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