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  Microsoft, Intel to cede tablet market to Apple?
Time: 13:52 EST/18:52 GMT | News Source: CNET | Posted By: Kenneth van Surksum

If the Apple tablet emerges as expected, this will be another big device market, following smartphones, that the PC industry cedes to Apple.

The writing is already on the wall already for Microsoft and smartphones, as spelled out in a previous post and as documented in shrinking market share numbers.

That's not to say that Microsoft, Compaq (later Hewlett-Packard), and Intel didn't have a chance. Remember the Compaq iPAQ PDA that debuted way back in 2000, powered by an Intel StrongARM chip running an early version of Windows Mobile?

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#1 By 20505 (216.102.144.11) at 12/27/2009 4:24:48 PM
In this matter I agree with Molly Wood of CNET. I'm not sure that Apple will even offer a "tablet" computer and if they do I don't think any one will buy it.

A netbook is a moderately useful device a tablet is not. No keyboard in my opinion means fail. This is even more true if the device doesn't use a resistive screen and a pen with handwriting recognition.

I have used these devices for years. They have a very limited place in the universe of computing devices.

#2 By 79018 (74.70.9.133) at 12/27/2009 7:20:22 PM
It will be interesting to see if it dilutes the iPhone market, do people want to carry 2 devices?
Wasn't that part of the success of the iPhone; an all in one device?

#3 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/27/2009 7:32:10 PM
#1: My Toshiba M400 is a "Convertible Tablet" so I have a keyboard.
Prsonally I see a Tablet as a laptop with a plus; I can use it as a regular portable or write on it with a pen and on my next one use Multitouch.
Personally I do not use much One Note, I prefer InkSeine which IMO is what the Courier will use too.
Granted I do not use big laptops with 17" screens and I want ... power so netbooks are not an option.

By what I am reading the Apple Tablet if it will be announced will be something similar to the "Smart display" MS launched, unsuccesfully, many years ago; the idea was good but they were ahead of time.

This post was edited by Fritzly on Sunday, December 27, 2009 at 19:32.

#4 By 236329 (58.173.132.231) at 12/27/2009 9:42:55 PM
Bill Gates has been predicting the tablet market will be the next greatest thing for probably more than 10 years.

It ain't going to happen!

#5 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/27/2009 10:43:20 PM
I've used and tested tablet PC's and the Viewsonic slate tablet since they first shipped in 2002.

They've come a long way and the UMPC was a nice step. Really, only the convertibles ever see much use and primarily as conventional laptops.

The entire line has suffered from design flaws and an OS and apps that are nearly as touch friendly as they need to be.

Early slates were simply too heavy and even the lighter UMPCs were uncomfortable - though in its small carrier and keyboard, the UMPC remained a favorite for a long time.

For a tablet to be good, it will have to be ultra lightweight and have great battery life - and as a giant iPhone, I guess it could be useful and perhaps fun, but it would beg what the point was.

I think rather more powerful and modern convertibles will do better and make more sense.

#6 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/27/2009 11:54:30 PM
When Bill Gates introduced the Tablet concept there were two variants:
Slate and Convertibles

I have never been interested in the Slate format so I cannot comment on them but I bought the first Toshiba Convertible, the Portege' 3500 and indeed it had issues both in the hardware and in the software. My actual Tablet is a Portege' M400 and I have to admit that while the software has improved a lot the hardware, unfortunately, did not.; it is heavy, bulky and underpowered.
Said that I believe that hardware manufacturers are at fault here: Tablets have always been considered "Children of a lesser God" to be sold at a Premium, and honesty, unjustified price.
What I am looking for as my next Tablet is a model with an outdoor readable screen, MultiTouch, I7 processor and an improved version of InkSeine.

The only reason I would consider a Slate would be as something to be used inside or outside the house for reading newspapers, checking TVs listings, watching pictures and most important of all controlling a completely domotized house and media systems which is what "Smart Display" were supposed to be.


This post was edited by Fritzly on Monday, December 28, 2009 at 08:20.

#7 By 17855 (205.167.180.132) at 12/28/2009 7:55:33 AM
We are working on a project for our field crews to close work orders in real time. These associates know how to do theyr jobs but do not know computers. My department chose an HP 2730 convertible. It works very well in this application coupled with it's built in 3G data card. We tested a laptop but we were having to school these guys on basic PC usage.

#8 By 89249 (64.207.240.90) at 12/28/2009 4:14:08 PM
I too have always wanted a slate. I used the old Compaq Slate with attachable keyboard. Honestly I see convertible netbooks with multi touch support being the next big "tablet" market.

Slates are cute but you honestly just don't get the right experience without specialty software. My guess is we'll see tons of Apple tablets in T.V. shows and movies (not much unlike the old compaq slate) but rarely see them in public.

As much as BillG would love to see them widely used, there has to be software out there that makes it worth not having a physical keyboard. I don't see that happening until multi-touch convertibles become very popular. And even then, we're only talking about a small percentage of computer devices. Personally I don't think we'll see the demand for software being high enough in the short or mid-term.

#9 By 13997 (75.54.113.74) at 12/28/2009 10:12:30 PM
Initial Debate should be:

Consumer vs Business

Business:
In the Tablet Market Microsoft has been around for a long time, and their pen and recognition technologies have no equal. This is where business uses Tablet PCs, and Win7 is a major boost to the TabletPC form factor and features.

In Business, Microsoft will continue to define the TabletPC industry, as Apple cannot impact the business side integration let alone compete in the TabletPC handwriting and usability for business users that use these everyday in the Hospitals and out in the field.

Consumer:
Apple is going to get the buzz, as there are a lot of people that don't even realize TabletPC technologies exist and work well.

The crux on is how 'specific' of a product Apple produces to fit a consumer market and how fast Microsoft responds to it if at all.

Microsoft has to adapt to be a more enduser model like they have finally done with the Zune and they already did with the XBox. (The Zune HD is a serious product that is keeping Apple on its toes for once.)

If Microsoft sees a specific market that Apple is targeting and responds with partnered devices from OEMs with a tweaked UI add-in for Win7, Apple won't hold any Tablet leadership long.

Even in the iPod and the iPhone markets, Apple hit their market and saturation and unless they pull something far outside of any expectations this market will no longer be theirs.

Consumer: Apple could bring some attention to Tablet devices, but unless they nail it, Microsoft can easily retake it as they have more R&D developed in this area.

Businesss: Apple won't even hit a dent, especially with a closed platform and lack of strong Pen and Handwriting technologies.

#10 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/28/2009 11:32:07 PM
#9
While I am a Tablet user since its appearance I disagree with some of your satements:

MS Tablet software, as far as pen and recognition technologies is good and has improved substantially since XP Tablet. Said that I have to admit that the rest of the OS is not "Tablet", pen, handwriting and even Touch/MultiTouch centric.


Other MS software suffer of the same shortcoming: even OneNote is not handwriting centric and a lot of Tablet users writes using Journal or InkSeine.

The same, at least this is my opinion based of my limited experience with their desktop OS is true for Apple. The iPhone was built from scratch to be "touch friendly", the rest of their software was not.

As for the hardware I have already expressed my opinion: hardware mauifacturers are the main responsible for the Tablet lack of penetration.

As for Apple I do not know if they will offer a Tablet and how it will be including how good the related software could be. I can tell you for sure that the iPhone on-screen keyboard is much better than the one on my HTC HD2 so, for now, I am just waiting before formulating any opinion.

I am not a big fan of the Zune or the iPod but commercially speaking the Zune cannot be considered a success. Please note that this does not mean that is not good; personally I love my Tablet although commercially this format is not a success, at least not yet.

As for the iPhone being close to market saturation.... I do not see any saturation for the smartphone market; they still represent, all the smartphone segment, a relatively small percentage of the cellular phone global market so there is plenty of room to grow.

As for MS ability to respond so quickly to other companies offers I cannot ignore that, after three years, we are still waiting to see what WM7 will be; even worse a side effect of this delay is the building up of huge expectations and higher the expectations bigger is the risk to fail.

Finally I strongly believe that MS should not try to mimick what other companies are doing but come out with its own innovative products: Courier is a perfect example: a new concept appealing to business users as well as average consumers; my mother who never ran a business always carried a Filofax agenda.

This post was edited by Fritzly on Monday, December 28, 2009 at 23:40.

#11 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/29/2009 2:34:57 AM
before we engage in specific debates about consumer recent consumer successes -vs business, I want to point out a couple of fundamentals that really chap my ass when it comes to the obtuse press people that seem to populate our modern world.

First, businesses and enterprises customers in particular, fund the entire effort that makes consumer versions possible. While ignored and discounted, business spending and the intense competition for business dollars drives innovation and the constant progress forward in the underlying technologies that companies like Apple and Google benefit from. The ever increasing power and value in "chips" as Mr. Jobs characterizes them, derives from this competition and cheap, yet very powerful IC's, CPUs and GPUs results first from business and is therefore available for consumer device manufacturers. Without this pressure and competition, Apple wouldn't have "cheap chips" to slap into its designs.

Second, every stinking thick headed tech pundit and pseudo journalist owes his/her existence to the same and just like CE device manufacturers is heavily subsidized by business spending.

Third, services like search, were first evolved for business and later adapted for use opposite the consumer space - as were apps and the markets now leveraged by the likes of Google - funded by businesses and enterprise needs and spending.

Apple has leveraged as many innovations as there are CE products in its lineup. It is really tiresome to read and hear what pundits have to say, when they have no clue of the relationship between business and the availability of the tehcnologies that benefit them. They take it for granted. It is as dim and poorly thought out as all the "me too" cloud services that have been in business solutions for over a decade.

Finally, idiotic comments that MS doesn't get consumer this or that... are you kidding me? Really? What company was it that made a computer on every desk and a laptop in the hands of every snott nosed kid possible? Who extended the "personal computer" beyond the enterprise and subsidizes to this day, they very availability of a consumer version of what once was the soul capability of business? It was Microsoft!

#12 By 13997 (75.54.113.74) at 12/29/2009 4:14:28 AM
#10

And you are basing this on Windows7 or Vista using a TabletPC?

I would find your assertions that Win7 is NOT designed around touch or Pen input very strange, especically considering the massive difference between TabletPC XP and Win7.

We deal with a lot of companies and users that use TabletPC technology, and what you say is dead on for user response based on TabletPC XP Edition. However, this is exactly the opposite response of Windows7 TabletPC users.

It is like this, with TabletPC XP edition, the convertible designs with keyboards were used more in the laptop mode than the Slate/TabletPC mode. With Windows7 users are finding they never have to flip to the Laptop form factor and can stay in the Slate mode 100% of the time.

There are lot of changes in the OS design from XP to Win7 that is designed around Pen, even the basic UI elements of moving from Menu centric designs makes a big difference in providing a comprhensive full time Tablet interface.

The other thing of difference between XP TablePC and Win7 is the input model and the level of handwriting recognition. In TabletPC XP you might have 80% recognition without training, on Win7 you will seen better than 99% without training, no matter how bad your handwriting is.

(People that want to see the difference can even Google the Vista Handwriting videos on YouTube, and Win7 is another jump in technology ahead of Vista because of the enhanced context based UI input model.)

So in a way I agree with you taking usability and pen input of TabletPC XP, but when you factor Win7's UI and pen capabilities I could not disagree with you more.

#13 By 13997 (75.54.113.74) at 12/29/2009 4:16:26 AM

#11 idiotic comments that MS doesn't get consumer

I agree that these type of comments are foolish, but when you step out of the IT world and look at technology from the consumer and media shoved darlings like Apple, it looks becomes a reality to people, even if incorrect.

Microsoft has always been about 'platform' and providing a complete development and ecosystem of products as they are not traditionally in the business of providing full end-user complete solutions.

You can take many of the Microsoft platforms or technologies and can see that the platform and development is more important than just the end user features. Microsoft has been reluctant to provide ALL features as this competes with their platform developers. Even take something like Media Center, which is by nature an end-user product technology, and yet one of its greatest strengths is the platform it provides for 3rd party integration as a platform.

This is where Microsoft is finally realizing that they have to fill in the 3rd party holes, where in the past they left the product ready for someone else to provide the features, which often never happens. Even Netflix which is a major Media Center and XBox delployment based on the MS platforms, Microsoft had to go in and hand hold Netflix to get them to build solid integration and features.

Microsoft is evolving to provide full end user product systems and still keeping the brilliance of a strong platform model. Zune and XBox are perfect examples, and as long as Microsoft stays focued, Zune could replace iPod as it meets a new consumer market end point, especially if the gaming and Video streaming features that are far above the iPod are built upon by Microsoft in addition to 3rd parties.

If Microsoft was always a lock-in give users all features, then Windows would of had Word and more than Paint and Calc as 'sample' applications and be more Apple that killed off Adobe and other companies by building in applications that compete with their own development base.


So I agree, but that doesn't change how Microsoft HAS dropped the ball by not filling in the holes of where 3rd parties should have been and just provided the 'features' to the end users instead of providing a platform for 3rd parties to provide these features.

This is what I mean in the transition from platform to end-user thinking and why Microsoft has massive success and respect in business and consumers tend to take them for granted.

#14 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/29/2009 8:14:03 AM
Account hacked?

#15 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/29/2009 9:32:24 AM
#14, no - that account holder uses his account to spam only.

#13, True, but it is only part of the issue. Where MS has provided complete solutions, or provided better end solutions than third parties have provided, they get hammered over legal and anti-trust issues. Where they do not, as with phones and media devices, third parties have not executed well. Take WinMo 6.5.1 the .1 update is substantive, but have you heard or read of it at all? Where are the reviews? On which devices does it ship? None exist.

We're dealing with a press and an industry that does not give a rip about people and consumers, really. Not in any way. 6.5.1 is vastly superior to Android and similarly, there are tens of thousands of apps that run on it - where is that message? It's simply not shared, because in business people are too busy earning money and working to spend enough time to address things in the press. Take our tiny posts - how many read them and even when we devote the time to explain the truth of things, how many people take the time to read it? Too few, I submit. Too few to matter. Yet on the consumer pundits march and speak "their" truth and not a one of them is even smart enough to understand what is under them. It's sick and the idiocracy that will be our undoing.

#16 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/29/2009 2:07:06 PM
#15: Iketchum would not it be possible to ban that idiot?

As for WM are referring to 6.5.3? I never heard of 6.5.1. as for 6.5.3 it is inded a nice improvemnt over 6.5 and I have it on my HTC HD2 right now..... thanks to xda-developers.



Besides it is not a mainstream news because it is not released yet, MS has not even announced it and less than ever mufacturers have it shipped with new devices or offered as an upgrade to actual users.

The point is that OS upgrades are almost non-exixtent for WM devices and this is a big problem; MS should push/force HTC and company to offer, eventually for a fee, OS updates to existing users, the platform would benefit enormously by this kind of behaviour.
Plus they should spend money to advertise the OS; start generating interest on a subject and the media will pick-up the trend, simple as that.

I am not familiar with Android so I will not comment on it although I know many people that use it and are very happy with it. IMO in the future the real battle will be between Android and MS.... if the latter will wake up in a timely manner.

This post was edited by Fritzly on Tuesday, December 29, 2009 at 14:10.

#17 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/29/2009 2:34:02 PM
#16, 6.5.1 shipped within days of the 6.5 and is available for most 6.5 compatible devices.

A note on the Droid/Android - ANY update blanks the phone - so be prepared to set it back up again. We have two or dev purposes and testing and candidly, WM 6.5.1 is a better MO OS.

For that matter, WinMo is a lot better OS than it is given credit for. Yes, it needs a new consumer UX to sate the press/pundits and users that deal best with really large buttons with primary colors and big numbers and images of yellow birds - and who can only do ONE THING at a time in tiny little steps... and I'm sure the engineers at MS, like myself, scratch their heads and often ask <laced with expletives> what will it take.

It is ironic, while demanding freedom and choice, the most vocal group (that does nothing to facilitate either), foams at the mouth over that which is most closed and confining... I do not get it and in no small way, I am very glad for that. "dumb it down...." - as opposed to smart it up? Ok fine, but does that mean I can stop funding these idiots and subsidizing them? Please?

#18 By 20505 (216.102.144.11) at 12/29/2009 2:40:34 PM
Fritz,

Is it worth the hassle of upgrading my old X60T to Win7? Love to give it a try but notebook drivers are always such a pain.


#19 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/29/2009 2:44:39 PM
#17: I found WM 6.5.1, it is the one with big buttons on the bottom; 6.5.3, the one running on my phone is just the latest build.

I do not know what you mean with "to be available for most 6.5 compatible device"; HTC does not offer it nor, as far as I can see, do others. I am not even considering Carriers because they are the worst of all in providing updates. And MS is not advertising it at all.

Again my HTC HD2 is two weeks old, SIM free as usual, but there is no 6.5.x builds available, not officially at least.

This post was edited by Fritzly on Tuesday, December 29, 2009 at 14:45.

#20 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/29/2009 3:21:43 PM
#18: I installed W7 on a Toshiba M400 which I guess is as old as your one and it works fine.

As others have stated handwriting recognition has improved a lot; consider that I attended schools in Italy and the way we write the characters is different than the way they teach in schools here.

I remember that this was a big issue with the Tablet XP OS: once I asked to someone in my office who attended schools in the US to write a couple of sentences and the OS picked up correctly the large majority of them, when I tried to do the same the rate dropped to 15%.
With W7 the accuracy percentage of my handwriting jumped to 95% and the OS is quite accurate even if I write in Italian.

So I would say that overall it is worth a try although, as you correctly stated, laptop drivers are trickier than desktop ones. Honestly Toshiba did a good job with them: I had no trouble at all but I do not know about Lenovo.
Good luck.....

#21 By 8556 (173.27.242.53) at 12/31/2009 12:51:56 PM
I find it fascinating that someone would think that Microsoft would cede a market that they now have a very good grasp of to the second string. Yeah, Apple is second string until they get into the game and prove themselves worthy as they did with the iPhone.

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