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Raymond: Cheap PCs will doom Microsoft | |
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| Time: 10:13 EST/15:13 GMT | News Source: ZDNet | Posted By: Robert Stein | ||
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Microsoft's software monopoly is running out of time, says open-source guru Eric Raymond, and he's got a precise figure for when the company's position will no longer be sustainable: $350. When the price of a PC falls below $350, Microsoft will no longer be viable," Raymond said in an interview with ZDNet UK. "The reason is that if you sell something below that price, you can't afford to pay the Microsoft tax and still make money." He said the best illustration of this is the handheld PC market, where Microsoft software powers relatively expensive devices, but has no presence in the lower-end market. | ||
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| #1 By 135 (209.180.28.6) at 3/1/2002 12:11:33 PM |
|
Eric Raymond is one of the truly misinformed Linux zealots. It's hard to take him seriously, and his existence is one of the best things going for Microsoft.
One of the best responses I've ever seen to his drivel is this one: http://www.lotus.com/developers/devbase.nsf/articles/doc2000091200 Basically the author looked at ESR's Cathedral and Bazaar story, and boiled it down to "ESR is just saying that Open Source doesn't have a massive management heirarchy. The same is true in many companies as well." One of the most striking problems with Open Source proponents is their lack of real world experience. ESR has never worked in a software development shop, he doesn't know how a company like Microsoft actually does development internally. He simply makes a lot of uneducated assumptions, and goes from there. This is yet another example of how uneducated he is about the market, and why he is irrelevant. It angers me that people like this get written up in magazines, when there are so many more intelligent things they could be publishing. |
| #2 By 1845 (12.254.231.11) at 3/1/2002 4:33:31 PM |
| Shouldn't anon .139, sodajerk, or sodalinux be responding? |
| #3 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 3/1/2002 4:43:47 PM |
|
Why, Bob? I'm not a penguinista. Nor do I think much stands in the way of harming MS--which happens to be the source of most of my views. Do I think the commoditization of the PC is a bad thing and troublesome for the OEMs and MS? Yes, but I don't agree that this trend necessarily continues to the point where a quiality PC is under $300. I personally think the trend is to rebel against this commoditization and also against MS dictating the specs of a PC--recently sales of higher end home systems has increased and that I think is a good thing. I always thought people were willing to spend more for a higher quality, differentiated product--I don't know why Wintel was able to destroy this basic concept for so many relatively intelligent people. This post was edited by sodajerk on Friday, March 01, 2002 at 16:44. |
| #4 By 2 (12.226.195.102) at 3/1/2002 5:56:27 PM |
| Let's be nice now. SodaJ just wants to express his views like everyone else. He doesn't swear or disruptful like some anon users.. |
| #5 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 3/1/2002 6:05:00 PM |
| Thanks, Bob, but I also don't want you to defend me (unless it gets really pathetic and I need to ask); I enjoy getting on people quite often and I can take it too, a lot better than most. I just wish people could get after me with a little more skill and intelligence, rather than weak, petty moaning and screaming. |
| #6 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 3/1/2002 7:06:28 PM |
|
Jeez, in fact, BobStein, maybe I've got to get back to insulting people, the posts have been dead for a couple of hours now, waddaya think? Well, anyone, I don't think this is insulting but I wonder...
What I don't get is how softies get so embroiled in haranging the Free Software gurus within the context of their own (the FS/OS guys') metaphors and idealized paradigms. You do understand that these are people with new ideas and causes so it requires zealotry, parables, etc... that of course don't make sense in the real world--it doesn't mean that these "parables" are free of meaning and relevancy. (After all, we all know that IBM, Sun, recently Apple, HP, and others have done more for OS than have KDE or GNOME.) And do you think Eric is saying that Microsoft is going to cease to exist as soon as the computer gets to that cost? Eric's a zealot, but he knows MS has many and different ways of making money--he's not a complete idiot. Eric will purposefully be simple in his arguments because most people will be blind to the fact that the "PC as commodity/Windows as license and contract" is a very troublesome model for profits (the OEMs definitely and ultimately, potentially MS) and for innovation (what does Dell do but piece together spare parts?)--at the same time, he's not concerned about profits, he's concerned about ideas. He can risk making a poor argument when your response will simply be calling him an idiot. The risk pays off when you can get someone to understand a metaphor--did you hear that, people? a metaphor--like the Cathedral and the Bazaar even if they are coming from and have pro-proprietary perspective. Think about that. And if computers do get to the point where OEMs are just cobbling together cheap parts from overseas contract manfacturers, but these parts are dictacted and controlled by a single piece of software (AND license) that amounts to 25-40% of the total cost of product, and none of the OEMs are actually building distinct new technology both on the hard and software side, do you think that's a good thing? Okay... love it, live it. Compaq will be dead this year, Gateway will be dead next year, maybe MS will get THEIR settlement, have fun. This post was edited by sodajerk on Friday, March 01, 2002 at 19:29. |
| #7 By 135 (208.50.201.48) at 3/2/2002 3:24:53 AM |
|
Thanks.
The IBM PC clone market has existed in large part as a result of just cobbling together cheap parts from overseas contract manufacturers for the past 15 years. At least since Leading Edge entered with the Model D, if not before hand. That this practice still exists today should not surprise anyone, there is a market, and it helps to drive down prices. As far as the cost of software being 20, 30, even 50% of the cost of the PC. Not surprising, and who cares? I can buy a DVD player for $150 today. Guess how many DVDs it takes to surpass that cost? About 10. Most people I know with DVD players own somewhere around 20 DVDs on average. In conclusion, I would like to spend this time defending sodajerk. He means well even if he is misguided. P.S. RedHat and Amazon are more likely to fail than Compaq and Gateway. |
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