If Microsoft wants to move the stock upward, they must reduce the total number of shares available to the public or significantly raise their dividend to shareholders. Presently, they have over 10 billion shares outstanding with 83% of that in "float" or available to the public. No amount of buying, or for that matter, selling moves a stock with that many shares available.
Microsoft either must buy back its stock or issue dividends on a regular basis and at a significantly increased rate. The former is an unlikely choice. To reduce the available shares by just 10% will cost the company $20 billion dollars. That's nearly two years worth of income.
The more likely choice is to continue to raise dividends. Presently, that rate is 1.2% per annum. Sorry, no one is interested in making 1.2% on their money when 90 day treasury bills are yielding 3.33% and are risk free.
Microsoft must raise their dividend into the 4% range to be palatable for most investors. This would mean quadrupling their present quarterly dividend of 8 cents a share. If the dividend rate was 32 cents per quarter or $1.28 per year, that would be 80% of their total earnings per share estimated for 2005 at around $1.43.
This is what is called being between a rock and a hard place.
In the past I was a long time holder of Microsoft stock and made a fabulous sum of money from that ownership. However, I sold all of my shares and bought Google and Yahoo when their stock became available. I haven't looked back.
Having said the above, they are without doubt the premium software company on the planet. They are just not a good stock ownership investment at this time.
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