The hardcore pirates will likely just start using a non-blacklisted key, or find some other solution. Why give them free support? They will eventually find a way to upgrade anyway. If not, maybe they can add a few percentage points to the free OS market. I'm sure MS, Adobe, etc., wouldn't mind losing them. ;-)
The majority of the problem-computers will likely not be those used by pirates anyway. They will likely be those used by the average user who doesn't upgrade unless they buy a new computer with the new version preinstalled, and who doesn't download updates like SP 2 because they don't know how or don't care to do so. In short, the same people that currently have systems filled with spyware, viruses, trojans, etc.
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