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Time:
09:22 EST/14:22 GMT | News Source:
ZDNet |
Posted By: Brian Kvalheim |
A recent article in the Harvard Business Review stirred unusual interest within the senior ranks of the computer industry by contending that the broad availability of information technology has dulled IT's effectiveness as a competitive weapon. Since then the piece, "IT Doesn't Matter," has been endlessly dissected--as much as for what it suggested as for what it reported. Indeed, if the central thesis of the article proves true, the implications for an IT industry struggling to recover from nearly three fallow years are grave.
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#1 By
6859 (206.156.242.36)
at
7/10/2003 12:51:09 PM
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The industry is cyclical, I personally forsee good times again...couple of more years, tops.
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#2 By
182 (208.224.173.101)
at
7/10/2003 12:56:58 PM
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Is it cyclical? Given that the IT industry is relatively young, and that there are factors at work now that have never been (every company now uses IT, but there are still too many IT staffers), makes me wonder how cyclical it is.
Unlike other revolutions, the IT revolution is a revolution in *REDUCING COST*, not in *INCREASING REVENUE*. So it may have very different dynamics.
That said, I have confidence that the economy's continued growth will eventually result in demand catching up to supply in the IT field, and we will see another resurgance.
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#3 By
135 (209.180.28.6)
at
7/10/2003 2:32:47 PM
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There are people in this world who hate success. There are people in this world who do not understand moderation.
The dot com world was overzealous and acted without moderation. Things got crazy during the bubble, and there were a large number of us who saw the basis of the success, but thought many of the scenarios were insane and urged moderation.
The insanity came to an end, it was inevitable.
But then instead of moving back into a path of moderation, the idiots who hate success started running about yelling "See! I told you so! I told you so!" and crippled technology spending at many companies. So there has been a nasty backlash into many markets.
But the reality is that the path to enlightenment is still there, it exists in the middle ground. IT isn't dead, it's very much moving forward in many markets where business leaders weren't consumed by the "I told you so!" crowd. It's difficult because the "I told you so!" crowd has damaged the overall market so badly, but inevitably they will fall to the wayside at some point, and the path to enlightenment will attain balance once again.
I just hope it happens sooner rather than later. It depends on how quickly America can release itself from the shackles of the "I told you so" pessimistic leadership.
This post was edited by sodablue on Thursday, July 10, 2003 at 14:37.
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#4 By
2960 (156.80.64.196)
at
7/10/2003 2:39:02 PM
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Sodablue,
I know we don't always see things eye-to-eye when it comes to Microsoft, but I sure agree with your post #6 :)
TL
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#5 By
20 (67.9.179.51)
at
7/10/2003 2:53:43 PM
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I think that IT has reached a critical mass where growth and return on investment is stagnant.
There will soon be a breakthrough in some technology (most likely software development, but I'm biased) that will make using computers so easy, so cheap and so powerful that it will propel businesses to offer tons of new services for much less cost.
One of these advancements would be making developing software dirt simple. Right now, it takes months of many people to produce a simple web app. Even with .NET, it's still too difficult. The majority of the time is spent coding foundation code (data access, basic UI framework, etc) before business rules are implemented. Making software development easy and reliable will be a huge breakthrough.
Then, beyond that, things like Artificial intelligence and better datamining capabilities will allow businesses to become ultimately flexible and extremely responsive to customer demands which will propel profits.
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#6 By
415 (199.8.71.121)
at
7/10/2003 2:55:57 PM
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Computer geeks WILL rule the world!!! ;-)
I agree with much of what's been said. However, I think that all too often IT is blamed for the failures of the process that most companies use to implement IT products and services. IT people make software and/or implement and support it. They can't make people use software or, more importantly use it properly. That's up to the business people, and frankly most of them think Technology is solely IT's problem. That my friends is a recipe for huge costs, total disaster, or both...
This post was edited by IronCladLou on Thursday, July 10, 2003 at 15:11.
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#7 By
10022 (24.169.192.8)
at
7/10/2003 9:35:15 PM
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computers will not go away. anyone that thinks they will is ignorant. the same thing happened 100 years ago with cars- and we all see how that worked out.
how many of you would invest in a company that relied on fax machines instead of email?
or a dial-up connection to the internet made from a PC running an orginal install of Windows 95 (can you say "Windows cannot determin the last time this drive was defragmented")
with out keeping up on this stuff (the best is yet to come) you will not compete for very long.
the real problem was that people thought that the Internet was the new economy. Its just another tool in the set that we've been making over the last few million years of eveloution.
If theres any failing with IT its that only the IT people really see what it can do. But that DOES NOT mean go out and start selling crap on the Internet just because you can make a web page.
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#8 By
135 (208.50.204.91)
at
7/10/2003 9:46:25 PM
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kevn84 - "the real problem was that people thought that the Internet was the new economy. Its just another tool in the set that we've been making over the last few million years of eveloution. "
AGREED!
"If theres any failing with IT its that only the IT people really see what it can do. But that DOES NOT mean go out and start selling crap on the Internet just because you can make a web page. "
The people who did that weren't IT people. :(
But if you have something unique to sell, there is value in doing this.
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#9 By
9589 (68.17.52.2)
at
7/10/2003 10:21:38 PM
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Baloney! The smart companies have seized the downturn in the economy and the ever lower prices for computers and networking gear coupled with a knowledgeable work force that for the first time in a decade was not able to demand and get outsized increases in pay and bonuses for their labor and have loaded up big time knowing that the economy will turn around - which it is doing. For example, over the last two years we changed out half of our 80,000 desktops and upgraded our network from the branch wiring closet to the data center.
Concurrently, we went from 23d to 6th in size in our industry and recently expanded into a part of our industry, brokerage, that was particularly hard hit by the downturn.
As a network systems manager responsible for both the availablility of the network and the cost of the same including labor, I do find some amusement in the so-called "open source" movement. To those few proponents where I work, I have wondered out loud at what point giving away programming skills working for the "community" will devalue that same labor in the for profit market place. Whether it is just the downturn in the economy or the "movement", I don't know. What I do know is that we aren't paying a newbie programmer any more today than we were 5-6 years ago while at the same time the skill sets that we are demanding are not that prevalent (and no - Linux programming skills just aren't on the list). From that stand point the so-called "open source" movement has been terrific in reducing costs!
I guess we have that goofy "Fin" to thank who owns a million dollar house in San Jose and swears he will never live anywhere that he can't drive a convertible! LOL
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