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Mister Softee's Fallen and He Can't Get Up | |
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||
| Time: 14:42 EST/19:42 GMT | News Source: The Street.com | Posted By: Jared Evans | ||
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Equity investors can't find a safer haven than Microsoft. That's the conventional wisdom, and it was probably true in the past. But in the last three months, Microsoft has lost 15% of its value, more than twice the decline of the Nasdaq as a whole. What's more, the world's largest independent software company has performed worse than 10 other software companies [see chart] with market caps of $4 billion or more, and worse than other "mega-cap" companies (valuations over $90 billion), including General Electric, ExxonMobil, Intel, Wal-Mart and Cisco. | ||
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| #1 By 6859 (206.156.242.36) at 3/11/2003 4:11:57 PM |
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Gee, MS' stock is depressed because of:
(1) a 2-for-1 split; (2) all the tech sector is depressed due to lack of spending. Ok. But he then says now is not the time to load up on shares. He's on crack. Why? Office 11. Buy now before that ships and watch your ship come in. Historically, after MS releases a product the stock jumps. When Office XP came out, it was nearly $20 a share jump (from $40 to damn near $60). That's a nice bit o' profit. I call this crapola. |
| #2 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 3/11/2003 4:34:07 PM |
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I don't think he said that either of those things are the reasons it is down. For one, the split hasn't sent it down... although clearly, it's tougher to send a stock up with twice as many shares. Secondly, he didn't say that the poor performance of the tech sector in general is a factor--he said MS is actually being affected more.
Anyway, what he is talking about is whether or not MS is going to go up, not what sent it down. The jump you mention from 40 to 60 was completely erased three months later, and happened at a time when the market was much more volatile. (There's still volatility, but volume has been leaking out of the market for the last year -- well, few years, but this year especially.) Most of MS's stock growth has happened because of 10 to 15 to 15+ % growth in the overall market... and at a time when the money was flowing into the market. Now the money is flowing out of the market and the growth cannot be sustained by MS, so why wouldn't you invest in companies that are more likely to experience greater growth over the foreseeable future? If the advice is, there are better investment opportunities in the market besides MS--the heady days are over--and I think that is the advice, I have a hard time believing ANYONE could call that crapola. |
| #3 By 6859 (206.156.242.36) at 3/11/2003 4:45:02 PM |
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I had a similar discussion with a stock analyst on another board. He was prdicting doom and gloom (and had some pretty impressive charts as evidence.) He said MS' stock (at that time) was going to go down to the sub $30 range, and from there it was bankruptcy.
I said he was full of it and I predicted that MS stock would go back up. It did--and that guy went away (and hasn't been heard from on that other board since.) Every so often, someone does the same thing: predict the end of the road (sort of a chicken little "the sky is falling" kind of thing.) In the end the tech sector rebounds. Science, and IT, dance to a really strange drum. Who can say what's next on the horizon? Prediction methods can only take someone just so far. I've heard the old line that the golden days are behind us plenty of times, and it all ended up being wrong. I think the same here. So, yeah, I still call it crapola. In quick succession we'll see (and not necessarily in this order) Windows 2003, Office 11, SQL Server 2003, InfoDocs (or whatever the hell they're calling it now), etc. Then We'll see the hardware sector rebound (as they often do.) NASDAQ will regain it's lost 5K points; the Dow will too. But it won't be until at least mid-summer and probably for another couple of months longer provided a war in Iraq happens. I still think buying MS stock is smart right now. I would myself, but I have no free cash (this same situation happened last time MS' stock was low... damn I hate paying bills.) |
| #4 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 3/11/2003 5:00:29 PM |
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Just because you had a conversation doesn't prove much of anything. When was this conversation? (It hasn't gone up in a while and when it has it's gone back down.) Who was this guy? There are lots of idiots.
I don't think I said, in fact, I know I didn't say, that the best days are over. But I would say your prediction of "NASDAQ will regain it's lost 5K points; the Dow will too" is just as freakin ridiculous. There is no way that the NASDAQ will be back at 5000 for at least 5 years. |
| #5 By 1896 (216.78.252.51) at 3/11/2003 5:17:03 PM |
| Sodajerk check how MS stock is rated by serious financial companies not "The Street.com"; they should be concerned about their own stock that drop to more or less $3 from around $70 right after the IPO. Standard and Poor's outlook for MS is 4 where 5 is the top value; it is also rated a "buy" with five asterisks. As far as try to forecast what the NASDAQ will do in five years there are so many variables that is impossible to make a realistic forecast. Personally, considering what is coming, I am buying only companies with plenty of cash-flow available. |
| #6 By 6859 (206.156.242.36) at 3/11/2003 5:49:56 PM |
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I never said by the end of summer the NDQ would be up 5K. Notice I said "it won't be before the end of summer..." Perhaps I could have been more clear, but to expect a multi-thousand point increas in NDQ in a few months is dope-ridden, I know that. Which is why I said it would take longer--I wasn't clear, and for that I apologize. My intent was to say that the 5K NDQ will return and to count MS as pinned to the mat is a mistake.
And no, kevinu, I'm not a republican. I'm an Independent with Democratic leanings. And just to be clear, I don't know anyone who actually voted for "W". My state went the other way. |
| #7 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 3/11/2003 6:43:40 PM |
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Yeah, let's be clear--I didn't say MS was done or doomed or declining or even 100% stagnant--all I am saying is that almost everyone who is qualified to recommend a good investment should have a number of companies ahead of MS in terms of risk, growth, opportunity, stability. That's all.
As for the future, when is this recovery coming Cthulhu? Because not only was the boom of 97 to 2000 artificial but it also allowed for some of the most amazing cap ex to ever occur--I don't even see most companies catching up to their own inventories and production levels of that peak for 5 years... Not to mention the complete lack of volume in the market--on a day to day basis, we are seeing about half as much volume as just a year or two ago. People aren't putting money into the market, companies aren't putting capital into investments and long term expenditures, companies are still catching up to excess capacity created 5 to 3 years ago... So when is the DAQ going to double? Over a ten year period? (Because I was being conservative when I said no way in 5 years...) Big deal, that doesn't say much--it doubled in four years once and completely fell apart. Are you suggesting that MS will have a heady upsurge (at some point) as they did through the '90s? I would strongly doubt that too, but that gets more speculative. So, to be clear: I am not saying that MS is declining (but they might be) nor am I saying they have zero potential for growth. I am sayign they should not be considered the safe bet anymore. They shouldn't be considered the number one opportunity anymore. There are a number of equities that present far more growth and stability. Can MS be safe and/or grow? Sure, but I wouldn't put them in the top five in most any category of investment opportunity. |
| #8 By 3653 (209.149.57.116) at 3/11/2003 11:14:15 PM |
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jerk - no need to clarify your statement. most of us ignored it anyway.
Regarding the stock - has anyone looked up a quote for PALM, SUNW, or AOL lately? LOL. |
| #9 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 3/12/2003 1:02:38 PM |
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...and the rest agreed.
Pathetic little chaser. |
| #10 By 3653 (209.149.57.116) at 3/12/2003 7:51:38 PM |
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same with me and sodablue. Eye to eye on technology and never even close on politics. But thats only because I think critically about all things, not just technology.
;-) sodablue, dont take my bait. |
| #11 By 135 (208.50.204.91) at 3/12/2003 11:00:50 PM |
| mooresa56 - Generally speaking the term critical thinking doesn't come to mind in relation to someone who simply regurgitates Rush Limbaugh quotes as sources of political commentary. |
| #12 By 3653 (209.149.57.116) at 3/16/2003 7:29:12 PM |
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blue - so funny that you think I quote Rush. To my knowledge, I haven't read, heard, or seen Rush in over a year.
blue - free your mind! Stop trying to label me (as a Rush fan, this time) and realize that the fortune you enjoy is due to the ideals of the Republican party. |
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