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Tech Predictions for 2010: Microsoft Pushes Out Steve Ballmer | |
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| Time: 03:51 EST/08:51 GMT | News Source: *Linked Within Post* | Posted By: Kenneth van Surksum | ||
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Ballmer's 10th anniversary as CEO of Microsoft arrives in January, but it's hard to imagine he'll be celebrating. Microsoft stock has dropped by nearly 50 percent on his watch, lagging not just other tech companies but even the Dow Jones industrial average. Distracted by the Windows Vista fiasco, Ballmer has missed every big new tech market of the past decade. Google won the race for Internet search and keyword advertising. Apple won in MP3 players and online music sales, and now holds the high ground in mobile phones, while Windows Mobile fades away. Microsoft's Zune music player is a dud. Bing, Microsoft's search engine, will never catch Google. | ||
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| #1 By 143 (74.133.145.60) at 12/19/2009 9:50:03 AM |
| Ballmer isn't going anywhere. |
| #2 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/19/2009 10:51:29 AM |
| Faith, Hope and Charity are the virtues of the Saints...... |
| #3 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/19/2009 11:36:30 AM |
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What?!?!? Annual dividend payments have increased by an average of 41.60% annually since 2003, which is much higher than the growth in EPS. The past three years have shown annual increases of 12,11 and 15% respectively. I would expect MSFT to increase its dividends by 10% over the next five years, until it reaches a dividend achiever status.
A 10% growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every seven years. Since 2003 MSFT has actually managed to increase its dividend payment over five times. Microsoft will reach dividend achiever status and emerge as the premiere tech holding for dedicated dividend investors. By the way folks, people live off of these dividends - you know, the same ones that Herr Obama broke off in the backsides of shareholders (old people) as he transferred all that money from those that earned it to fat cats in the unions at GM and elsewhere - while vilifying the lawyers that by law and oath were sworn to protect them. It made me sick to watch our laws shredded like that. Do not forget that Mr. Ballmer was a key figure that factored in Microsoft's growth from nearly the beginning. It was Steve Ballmer that drove the growth in the business - hiring tens of thousands of really well paid people and creating an entire industry around Gates' vision. Do not forget that it was under Steve Ballmer that Windows 7 was developed and shipped parallel to Windows Server 2008 R2 and the only real strategy for a services+software (you and every cloud there is) delivery. It was under Steve Ballmer that Xbox shortcomings were addressed and customers protected as they had never been before and the finest online entertainment experiences ever have been delivered. Do not forget the fact that under Steve Ballmer, the Zune HD emerged as the reference design for all future multi-many core hand held devices. Don't forget either that under Steve's leadership, really FREE and great anti-virus software was made available and while you're at it, recall also how XP SP2 was delivered as a free Service Pack, vice a point release - vastly easing and speeding adoption in the enterprise. Add them all up and they reflect "a good man" that does the right thing, regardless of the personal consequences and that is the essence of the meaning of the word character. Compare that to the "screw users" attitude that comes out of other CEOs as they fail to pay dividends, fail to include legacy users and fail to take one on the chin for users of their products when they don't do as expected. |
| #4 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/19/2009 2:14:18 PM |
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#3: Personally I would kick him out because I had to move from Money to Quicken 2010: the latter is full of bugs and it seems to be back in the Win 3.1 era with its horrible, ancient and cartoonish GUI
Seriously; in your statements you mention the growth of the paid dividends but you did not mention that, till 2003, MS never paid any dividend. As for XP SP2 let us give the credit to who deserves it: it was Jim Allchin who kicked and pushed because what became SP2 was released as such and not as "XP R2" or "XP Second Edition". Besides if Ballmer was the sole responsible for the facts you mentioned he is also responsible for these other ones : Sales (Qtr vs year ago qtr) -14.20 Net Income (YTD vs YTD) -18.30 My point is that he is not this perfect man who never makes a mistake; just remember his forecasts about the iPhone..... Said that I am not implying that he is not a good manager or executive, whatever. His strenght is also, as usual, his weakness: he does not have a vision. If it was not for Bill Gates, for example, I would not be using a Tablet..... This post was edited by Fritzly on Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 14:20. |
| #5 By 20505 (216.102.144.11) at 12/19/2009 5:46:58 PM |
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Fritz,
I knew it! I'm not the only one in America to use a tablet PC. |
| #6 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/19/2009 6:30:02 PM |
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Eh, eh.... If we chech thoroughly we could dig out another two or three like us.
Seriously speaking I travel a lot and I need a light laptop not a 17" inches one. I love the versatility of the Tablet concept; I only wish some company will come up with one using: an Intel Core Ixx, MultiTouch, Outdoor readable, High resolution screen. Hopefully the coming CES will bring good news, I need to replace my Toshiba Portege' M400. |
| #7 By 20505 (216.102.144.11) at 12/20/2009 12:06:36 AM |
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I know this was Bill Gate's thing but I believe that for non-inputing tasks such as surfing the web, reading email, and the like on a portable computer there is no better device than a touch tablet with a 13" screen.
Tablet XP is great and fast. Every thing else you need is available in the secondary market. One downside. These devices get too hot. IMHO more power is not the most important thing. If Apple does make a tablet look for a small and cool running device that has great battery life. |
| #8 By 37 (217.91.196.83) at 12/20/2009 12:10:07 AM |
| Applications like Quicken and Money are going to be eliminated (Money already). They are moving to web based, and bank web apps anyway. |
| #9 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/20/2009 12:25:25 AM |
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Fritz.... c'mon buddy...
Sales (Qtr vs year ago qtr) -14.20 Net Income (YTD vs YTD) -18.30 Yeah, I hear ya... BUT... everyone was waiting on Windows 7, which did not ship until Oct. We all know what happened throughout the global economy during this period and how flat business/enterprise spending was and yes, all the negative press against Vista was a factor, too. You forget that Ballmer could have said no, but he did not. We were presented an award for best server and best application at the 2004 TechEd in San Diego that year. I talked with most of the senior leaders at great length while there and we discussed XP SP2 at some length. SP2 was all but done and ready to ship and I recall pretty well how universal the sentiment was about releasing it as a service pack, vice a point release. If I can recall exactly, Ballmer said they thought about a point release for about 2 seconds and throughout the decision was to ship it as an SP in order to ensure businesses could install it nearly immediately. SP2 and testing/planning tools were a huge component at that TechEd. SMB over 443 was delayed, too, because of it - orignally it was to have shipped in W2K3 R2. Ballmer has to be one of the nicest guys in business I have ever met - genuine. Of course he's far from perfect, but without question, his company has been a success and makes good products. I noticed also, that every MS employee I met was really nice and very eager to make sure customers were happy. Not a one of them seemed insincere in any way. It was very impressive. Tablets do rock and we bought our first when the first Viewsonic slates and Toshibas shipped. I think they are going to emerge as among the more popular notebook variants under 7. |
| #10 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/20/2009 7:23:16 AM |
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#8: I disagree: a "bank web app" interact with your bank, I need something where I can keep and work with all my financial data regardless of the provider hence Money.
As to have them completely Web based...... no thank you; the "Cloud" is a great concept and correctly implemented will be very useful but is not the panacea for everything. This post was edited by Fritzly on Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 07:24. |
| #11 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/20/2009 8:10:21 AM |
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#9: Iketchum: yes MS employees are, at least that was my experience as well as yours, always nice and more interested in leaving you with a positive impression of the company than with a sale in their pocket.
As for Ballmer I am sure that he believes in the company and surely he does have integrity: he did not sell tons of MS shares before the XBox recall...... Also I really appreciated him when he admmitted, actually recognized is a more proper word, that they were late with a WM OS to go against the iPhone and others. Smartphones importance is becoming greater and greater; personally I do not believe that smartphones will replace portable computers because of their phisical dimension constrains; sure one day we will have a gear that will project a holographic image, even a three-dimensional one, to interact with and so the dimensions of the screen will become an irrilevant factor but......not in my lifespan. Being one of the main players in this segment is crucial. Only time will tell but surely there are a lot of subjects, both inside and outside, the company closely watching what Ballmer will be able to pull out of the hat between January and June 2010 and determine if he will be remembered as a novel General Patton that made an entire division complete an 180 degrees U-turn in the middle of the Ardenne winter and saved the Western front or General Von Paulus who, locked in Stalingrad lost the Eastern one. This post was edited by Fritzly on Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 08:13. |
| #12 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/20/2009 10:43:41 AM |
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#11, 4th armored (the spearhead division) backed up out of a winter fight, turned left and drove over 100 miles north to relieve Bastogne and the 101st. In reality however, it was the 10th armored division that saved the front itself - despite the utter collapse of the golden lions (read death of a division), the 10th fought a brilliant blocking action as they were forced to retreat - they did so in good order and cost the enemy dearly - weakening them and draining them of fuel, ammunition and of course tanks and men. The tank destroyers of the 10th in particular, were most effective.
One of the 4th's tank heavy RCT's, operating as independent combat brigades do now, fought so aggressively, that a scant few (4) tanks reached Bastogne on the 26th - the day after Christmas - which also offered clear skies and an ungodly pounding of the Germans from allied air, which held the line until more units of the 4th were brought up. Patton is credited for having the brass to leave his own flank exposed, while fighting an action called "breaking contact" (pouring on fire while withdrawing rapidly), in order to turn north. I credit him for taking proper advantage of situations, rather than creating them - after all, there was little threat to the flank he left exposed (most German units of any note were all up north). Similarly, I remember quite vividly how badly Patton treated DPs and most especially Jews after the war - for a time, only the color of the uniforms changed in the towers and the reality is, he was relieved of command by Eisenhower over this (not his politics as is commonly held). Eisenhower was furious, and disgusted and forced Patton to accompany him to 6 specific camps outside Landsberg - real horror centers that were typical of the sub-camps that were fed by much larger facilities that were "resorts" by comparison (sharp sarcasm). These sites were within walking and smelling distance of many towns that existed right next to them. There is no way the people didn't know what was going on - in fact, they all did! Paulus, and the 6th were doomed the second they were ordered to take the city - of ruins, against which they lost every advantage such maneuver units have. He commanded the wrong army at the wrong place and was not allowed to withdraw to save it - being expected to commit suicide and become as mad as the madman that had promoted him to the rank of field marshal to ensure it. Point is that having lived some of history, it is certainly common that what is written of it, rarely coincides with what actually happened. I think the same is true of Ballmer - too few know him well enough to understand his unique quality: character. WinMo 7 will be unlike any mobile OS there is - better, far more powerful and it will leap frog over the rest. I don't think the others are that special, or really unique. As you say, time will tell. |
| #13 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/20/2009 11:20:29 AM |
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#12: Your remarks are very accurate; although it is very true that "the bigger the man, the bigger his lights and shadows".
No matter what Patton handled the "de-nazification" of Germany in a very smart way which avoided the collapse on the infrastructures as it happened, unfortunately, in Iraq. As for Paulus it is very interesting as you exactly characterized the fatal mistake made on the Eastern front: the majority of the people believe that holding the city was the mistake while I totally agree with you that it was instead the siege of it. The 6th Army should have continued running towards the Urals to disrupt the Russian industrial capability and secure the oil fields; the latter being much farther than Ploesti would have been out of reach from Allied bombers. |
| #14 By 89249 (70.177.97.103) at 12/20/2009 5:15:58 PM |
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#8 - Sadly Money is the only app that does what most households need. True cashflow Forecasting.
The web based apps you speak of are, and I can't say this with enough emphasis, effing terrible. Getting a cute barchart/piechart of past expenses can (and is done) in Excel. Sadly, if more households began to rely on Money like tech we may not see so many dying for cash on a regular basis. I've personally converted 6 households to it for true money management in the home. So many of them actually have the recommended 3 month of take home income in their savings accounts now. The crap provided by all of the websites (and I've tried damn near anything I can find since money is dead) is useless. I've virtualized a machine with Money that I plan on using until it just stops working. If you can't forecast your cashflow you can't make educated financial decisions. Honestly I hope a website begins providing this service though I'd prefer not to have all of this info "in the cloud". I prefer to put in my transactions manually to have better control of categories. My biggest thing is I don't think a truely useful, fast, responsive app like Money can be replicated in the browser. At best perhaps silverlight but that's still up in the air. This post was edited by MrHumpty on Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 17:17. |
| #15 By 1896 (68.153.171.248) at 12/20/2009 5:45:09 PM |
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#14: Exactly! Either way a virtualized machine or downloading a copy from the torrent which does not require activation;I already have my retail copy.
I am going to give up with Quicken: it is horrible and it is bad enough I have to deal QuickBooks after MS , again, killed SBA. |
| #16 By 11888 (198.103.167.20) at 12/21/2009 10:37:44 AM |
| I should probably read the article but that blurb implies that in music players, search, or whatever there's no money unless you're the leader. That's crazy talk. |
| #17 By 23275 (68.117.163.128) at 12/21/2009 11:59:19 AM |
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#15, $14, these very shortcomings and the persistent fear, that as they did with great applications like PhotoDraw V2, ImageSuite, etc... that MS would simply drop them, coupled with our desire to create leader beating enterprise software, yet put it in the hands of small business, for small business prices, is why we set out to build our Sovereign Enterprise Software.
What you are commenting about is all about "context" - meaning, business operations in the context of finance and accounting and being able to see decision making information instantly and in real-time. Our focus was on providing what kinds of visual business intelligence products business owners and individuals needed to make effective decisions and then building our software backwards from those products. (on top of what we assess to be the finest business, project, MES and inventory control modules and finance and accounting software ever made - specifically, because it produces decision making information as people work normally). We've created custom instances of entire suites for the land management, engineering, warehousing, power management and wireless industries, yet preserve the ability to extend this power to the smallest of businesses. You can read a little more of what we set out to do here, http://sovereign.libertech.net - Let me apologize for the shameless plug in advance - that is not my intent. This issue is too important for that. What I do want to encourage is that the bar be set much higher than it is and truly, applications like QuickBooks and Peachtree and as they are delivered, Sage/Timberline just do not get the job done. Money and SBA were far better, but they too fell far short. We want to encourage all the big players we compete with to do much better - SAP, etc.. they are awful, really. They take too long and are too expensive and they do too little and they are unavailable for small business in any real way. We wanted and did change all that. Our hope is that all others will, too. The goal was not so much about business, as it was to create the kinds of tools that I used to for governments - coupled with the education about how to use and leverage their power - which sadly, governments rarely do. |
| #18 By 7754 (206.169.247.2) at 12/21/2009 3:07:29 PM |
| #16: exactly. No one is telling Apple they should "just give up" when OS X has less market share and much lower market share growth than Bing does against Google. |
| #19 By 460049 (90.222.76.33) at 1/15/2011 1:53:51 PM |
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Microsoft have got some work to do, new tablet rumours
http://www.teknuw.com |
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