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Is a Linux Desktop Avalanche Coming? | |
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| Time: 21:53 EST/02:53 GMT | News Source: eWeek | Posted By: Andre Da Costa | ||
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Opinion: With easy-to-install software, Linux is on the verge of becoming a force in desktop computing. Slowly, ever so slowly, the Linux desktop has been picking up momentum. It keeps getting better and better, but Microsoft's monopoly has kept many PC users from realizing that there really is a viable alternative to Windows. However, that's about to change. Just like a few more snowflakes can turn a quiet, snowy mountainside into an avalanche, Linux is teetering on the edge of becoming a real force in the desktop computing world. | ||
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| #1 By 1401 (65.255.137.20) at 3/2/2007 10:06:02 PM |
| Desktop avalanche....hmm...Is that where you have a bunch of linux desktops piled up in the corner of the room and they all tumble over? Yeah, I could see that... |
| #2 By 32132 (64.180.219.241) at 3/2/2007 10:45:02 PM |
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"Slowly, ever so slowly ... "
Yup. Really slowly. Amazingly slowly. The kind of slow that appears to be going backwards. |
| #3 By 3653 (68.52.143.149) at 3/3/2007 1:11:27 AM |
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munich will soon have, what, 500 whole desktops migrated in over 2 years of effort? AVALANCHE.
Cuba is going to add another 1200 desktops. TOTAL: 1700 Venezuela and a few other socialist countries will probably add a few more thousand. TOTAL: 5000 Anyone know off-hand what ONE-PERCENT of the pc market is? How many desktops? Oh wait, the author isn't even saying the market for desktop linux will go crazy this year. The only time-frame he even VAGUELY mentions is "2008". Didn't we JUST start 2007? This post was edited by mooresa56 on Saturday, March 03, 2007 at 01:14. |
| #4 By 75021 (69.161.164.43) at 3/3/2007 6:11:26 AM |
| Cuba is the key. As the elite leaders of the workers paradise, Cuba sets the course for workers. Soon all workers will realize that they, too, can be as free as Cuba. Via Le Revolution! |
| #5 By 2201 (86.31.126.6) at 3/3/2007 9:42:31 AM |
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#4 yeah, like they have been doing in the last 60 years, eh? All I see is the US tightening their Western grip on the world. So if we keep on with the Linux/Cube analogy, Linux won't be doing much, if at all.
Anyway, Linux 1% of the PC market? Are you having a laugh? Apple only have 5%, Linux with 1% is too generous! |
| #6 By 32132 (64.180.219.241) at 3/3/2007 10:16:39 AM |
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#3 Actually, Munich is installing Windows 2000.
"The German city of Munich is buying a whole pile of Microsoft Windows this month - but it won't be the newly released Windows Vista. Instead, it will buy 2000 legit "used licenses" of Windows 2000 Professional, claiming it will save them money. The licenses are bought from Munich based company Usedsoft, which buys up licenses from other companies that no longer use them." http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2007/01/02/munich_buys_windows_2000/ |
| #7 By 3746 (72.12.166.62) at 3/3/2007 12:03:50 PM |
| These articles come out every year like clockwork. Every year is the year of Linux on the desktop and then it never happens. So my predicition is Linux is not going to explode on the desktop this year. |
| #8 By 75046 (201.52.212.186) at 3/3/2007 12:07:31 PM |
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Oh my.. itīs a joke or what?
Here in Brazil, the government have a program called "Computer for All" which a desktop with linux sells cheap... but guess what, people buy this and after a month or so they replace the crap linux with windows (this is about 80% in a recent poll)... So, even pushing, no ones want linux.... |
| #9 By 10022 (69.204.110.203) at 3/3/2007 1:31:58 PM |
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Event the author admits Linux is still fragemented but somehow it will unite everyone? Untill Linux its self is united it has no chance at winning over the masses.
Like it or not, legacy compatitbility is critical and the Linux community seems to have the "if its not new, its boring so were going to do this new thing" attitude. With linux, there is NO garrentee that you application will work on all the current distros, let alone the next version of ANY distro including yours If these people really wanted to change the software industry, they would write really cool, usefull applications for Windows and Apple. No body cares about the OS - why do they think people will ever see Linux as a solution that will work for them (other than the dumb ones that think its free because you dont have to pay for the software). And when writing this software, please do it in the supported, recommneded Microsoft way- these apps really do work better. Who cant tell when they're using an app written by some one that doesnt follow the recomendations (and how well does that app really work)? And you might also want to drop the "if you dont like some thing you can just go reprogram your computer" bit- thats not something soccer moms and grandpas, or sales managers want to hear and I dont think they would call that a feature. |
| #10 By 23275 (24.179.4.158) at 3/3/2007 4:51:48 PM |
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"Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness..."
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed, by their Creator, with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. Any 5th grader can tell you that the above comes from the preamble to the U.S. Declaration of Independence. Inspired by the Dutch Oath of Abjuration of 1581, and centuries of human history, triumph and failure, it essentially declares that people have certain rights and central to them is to own and dispose of things as benefit them. "Property and Happiness being considered equal and the same - one not having a prayer of the later without having the former." As originally written and regarded, "Happiness" reflected the word, "Property" - because it was then and now, understood that for any person to be truly free, they would have to be able to acquire and dispose of property - should they not, there would be no real foundation underwriting individual liberty. The state existing for one purpose only - to ensure its people could exercise that right, by creating and protecting the conditions providing for it. Throughout human history, it has been man's destiny to be free and exercise judgment over his own course ["Guns, Germs and Steel, and Collapse" by Jared Diamond are great reads which help one see human history in a pretty quick pass]. "How is any of this relevant to FOSS and despotic, or socialist government statements regarding FOSS - manifest in the use of Linux?" Despots and socialists do not care one whit about individuals - much less individual liberty. In fact, individual liberty is the enemy and target of states imposing the will of the very few, or one, upon the many. In such states people may not own property and ownership of businesses - the ultimate property, cannot be allowed. Cont... |
| #11 By 23275 (24.179.4.158) at 3/3/2007 4:52:10 PM |
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In such states, the ruling elements and their chosen and privileged supporters will take from all and distribute the remainder - after they have taken the very best for themselves. They get the cream, their supporters get the skim milk and individuals get to suck a dry teat.
Despots and socialists will embrace FOSS/Linux - because stealing property, namely Microsoft Software, is getting harder. Despotic and socialist governments will try FOSS/Linux, but disk load the crap out of commercial software they can steal - older versions of pirated Microsoft operating systems, primarily. They will look the other way as their populations also steal. That's a lot to hang on Linux, but it isn't about Linux at all - Linux is simply used as one small tool among many that despots use to control people. It is about property and the fear of it that despots have. Socialists fear it, too but they'll allow enough free enterprise to keep the state coffers full. In my mind, and despite many faults and uncounted failures, the United States of America and many of its companies stand for one thing - the latest, best chance for any individual to exist as just that - an individual. To secure that, one must be able to own and sell "stuff" independent of the state's influence. Consistent with that, I assess Microsoft creates products that work as force multipliers and enablers, which extend each person's ability to succeed according to their own effort, energy, talent and will. To succeed, they have to protect their own property, too. I believe we have to recognize things for what they are - less is not more, more is not less and only people were meant to be free - all else comes at some price and it must come at a price that is of benefit to the seller - to do otherwise works against a zero-sum model where nothing grows, the food is bad, cars smoke, shoes have holes in them and the chicks have bad teeth. This is why FOSS won't work any better than Apple's elitist mentality - on one side is pure despotism and on the other are the privileged elite that will have traded liberty for comfort. I'll be in the middle - well armed and standing where millions of other "little guys" have stood since the beginning of time - right over what I fought and bled for to call my own. |
| #12 By 8556 (12.210.39.82) at 3/3/2007 5:49:52 PM |
| Linux avalanche? Not likely. 1% market share in 5 years is possible, but much of the 1% will be dual boot installs with Windows. |
| #13 By 37047 (74.101.157.125) at 3/3/2007 6:25:19 PM |
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If there is a Linux avalanche coming, it is certainly a ways away. Seasonally speaking, it is still early Autumn as far as the avalanche of Linux desktop deployments is concerned. There are several things that need to happen before an avalanche will occur:
1) A consistent and unified installer system is required. Something similar to Microsoft Installer 2.x or 3.x. Microsoft has done a decent job with the design of this technology. 2) A consistent file system layout, so that things are installed in the same place on different distros. This is another thing that makes deploying software to different distros difficult. There are efforts underway to accomplish this sort of thing. 3) A consistent set of APIs to use to create applications, so that they have a consistent look and feel. Some sort of look and feel guidelines would be a benefit here. 4) Some documentation for more complex software offerings. There is some fantastic F/OSS software available for most operating systems, but the documentation for many of them is horrible, if it exists at all. No one wants to install something like Sendmail, Samba, etc., without some heavy-duty, in-depth, documentation. Not everyone is a highly experienced system administrator. These are not typical applications for the desktop, but they are used for illustrative purposes. There are other things lacking as well, but those are a few of the bigger highlights. Now, lets all watch ParKKKer and mini-Moore fall off their chairs and injure themselves after reading a post that is fair and balanced, yet critical of Linux on the desktop. See boys, not everyone who advocates F/OSS software here has completely drank all the kool-aid. |
| #14 By 3653 (68.52.143.149) at 3/3/2007 8:37:46 PM |
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anyone else frequent activewin long enough to remember the old days when an article like this would be met with at least SOME enthusiasm and belief that linux was making strides? I do. But in reading the previous 13 comments, I don't see the same fervor for the "linux on desktop" myth.
remember the foaming at the mouths from the linux-tards when munich first announced their great big deal? where are those voices now? faded away, trying to pretend they never made such comments? sodajerk? latch&2sugars? |
| #15 By 10896 (24.198.54.62) at 3/4/2007 8:45:18 AM |
| What a joke. The Linux desktop is so terrible they cant even get users by giving it away for free. |
| #16 By 8556 (12.210.39.82) at 3/4/2007 11:15:05 AM |
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billmac: Ubuntu Linux works very well as a desktop OS. The problem with wide adoption is that most people buying new PCs will simply use the installed version of Windows. Only people that understand what Linux is will want it. The average person still doesn't know what Linux is. You may as well discuss quantum mechanics with them. My experience is that the customers of mine that are willing to try Linux have opted for a dual boot configuation. Their logic is "just in case" they need Windows. Just in case the grandson brings a Windows based game over, just in case they want a new program that's only available for Windows, etc.
Dual boot Ubuntu and Windows has been acceptable to many. 90% don't even want to think about a new OS, even Mac OS X. The big box stores don't even mention Linux to customers, or explain what an OS is. To their customers Windows is the computer. Many people think preinstalled programs are a part of Windows. |
| #17 By 37047 (74.101.157.125) at 3/4/2007 12:56:13 PM |
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The ultimate PC would be one that could triple boot Windows XP/Vista (one of), Linux (Ubuntu or other), and Mac OS/X. Then, you could run all available software. The PC should be a dual core or better CPU. Or the various OSes in a virtual machine configuration.
Linux is not quite ready for full desktop deployment, especially to those of us with out of the ordinary hardware and software requirements, but for the average mom and pop, who want to do some web surfing, send and receive emails from the kids, and other light-weight tasks, a Linux distribution like Ubuntu would be quite acceptable to them. I have been using OpenOffice 2.1 for a while now, and find it quite good. And this is from someone who started using MS Word when they released version 2 of it. It all comes down to requirements. For some, like avid gamers, it is likely not a choice, since most PC games are Windows only. The biggest thing that could happen to rapidly speed up Linux desktop adoption would be for the hardware makers to make decent Linux drivers for their hardware, instead of just making drivers for Windows and occasionally Mac OS/X. So, it really comes down to what you do with your computer, and whether or not there is software and drivers for the hardware available to allow you to do those things under any particular OS you are interested in. |
| #18 By 2231 (71.126.176.220) at 3/4/2007 1:26:49 PM |
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#18 ... triple boot ...
This sounds a lot like the old days when I would run Wordperfect for DOS and if I wanted to use Quattro Pro or FoxPro I had to exit Wordperfect. |
| #19 By 75046 (201.52.212.186) at 3/4/2007 3:23:30 PM |
| bobsireno: Like I told before, here in Brazil thereīs a lot of desktop selling with Linux installed, but the people choses to replace it with a windows (even pirated ones)... So itīs not the fact Windows came with the machine, but simply for the common people Linux is not good enough... |
| #20 By 6859 (206.156.242.36) at 3/5/2007 7:50:20 AM |
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I can answer the question: No, a linux desktop avalanche is not forthcoming.
I tried, I really did, for over a month; including several different distros (including Debian and Slackware) and they all have things "wrong" with them. Some wouldn't play a DVD movie even when the official documentation says that support exists out of the box. Some had broken 3D application support. Some, to their credit, almost got it right (I'm looking at you, Ubuntu 6.06), but in the end...none of the Linux distros worked the way I wanted them to: that is to say, gave me the same trouble-free environment that my trusty old XP install gave. I don't like Vista that much, but Linux is nowhere near where it needs to be if they want to make a serious move to displace Windows from the desktop. I think XP is the high water mark of Windows and Vista is just eyecandy on top of XP with what amounts to really minor improvements. I'm sticking with XP. |
| #21 By 37 (76.210.78.134) at 3/5/2007 11:25:37 AM |
| Linux will never take over. But if people were not so blind to the options, it might have a chance. As of right now, I can't go Linux because of the excellent connection between Media Center, Xbox 360 and Windows. If not for that, I would switch. |
| #22 By 9589 (66.56.135.191) at 3/5/2007 6:42:07 PM |
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#22 - Isn't that the case with millions of Windows' users? We all have our favorite programs and utilities for work and play and they all require Windows to run on.
When my sons were younger they would play role-playing games and sims for hours on end. They could have cared less what the underlying operating system was. In fact, one is a surgeon now and the other is heading to medical school in the fall and they could still care less what OS is running on their computers they use at work and at home. They just care that their computers run the applications that they need to get their jobs done. And that is the real weakness in FOSS/Linux. What is the programming platform? Is there one? Yet, almost everyone that works with computers in an adminstration or programming capacity has heard or used Visual Studio x.x and .Net. So far as free or low cost programs are concerned, there are more developed by Windows developers for Windows than there are for FOSS/Linux. There are literally tens of thousands of applications and utilities out there. Many of the free ones are actually quite good. For a quick look, go to www.downloads.com Heck, even Tovalds has said, and on more than one occasion, that Linux was not ready for the desktop. He is right! |
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