#4 - I can't speak for other Windows users, but I get particularly upset when programs are "broken" by newer Windows versions. Unfortunately, in the vast majority of cases, the problem is with the programs, not the OS. However, what would a user think if he upgrades from XP to Vista and some programs stop working? That Vista broke his programs. Nevermind that the programs themselves were (likely) to blame.
To avoid bad programs from hampering adoption of new OS versions, Microsoft puts Herculean efforts into application compatibility. In fact, Raymond Chen wrote a blog entry today about how they got a very poorly-designed app to work in Windows 95:
http://blogs.msdn.com/oldnewthing/archive/2006/01/09/510781.aspx
In the end, it is up to the third parties to make sure their applications work properly on the new operating system. If they play by the rules (follow published APIs and don't depend on implementation details) their apps will be fine. In any event, vendors have had plenty of time to get their apps into shape for Vista.
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