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Xbox, GameCube scrap for second place | |
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| Time: 16:27 EST/21:27 GMT | News Source: CNET | Posted By: Robert Stein | ||
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Thanks Sodajerk. "Sony will continue to dominate the video game business over the next few years, with Microsoft and Nintendo battling for second place, according to a report released Tuesday by research company In-Stat/MDR. The report says 31.8 million game consoles were sold worldwide in 2001, generating $7.1 billion, with substantial increases expected over the next few years. Analyst Brian O'Rourke, the author of the report, said he couldn't share specific market share numbers, but the race is clearly for second place. Sony had shipped 40 million units of its PlayStation 2 as of last month, while Microsoft's Xbox and Nintendo's GameCube were each edging past about a tenth of that. " | ||
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| #1 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 10/29/2002 6:15:22 PM |
| Awww, come on, mooresa, no, whooping and hollerign for this wild success? |
| #2 By 3339 (64.175.40.247) at 10/29/2002 10:05:27 PM |
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Peter, go on counting such foolish parallels as second in 2003 with second place in 1996. Hell, who cares about place, position? (Did you know Apple jumped to 5th place in US server sales for the year in one quarter? Doesn't mean much does it?) Or attempting an Apples to Apples comparison? (Nintendo is basically happy with their position and this is entirely inline with their projections, and you're fooling yourself if you think this situation is similar to the intro of the PS against Sega.)
What I look at is 3.8% of the market in comparison to a competitor with 92.4% of the market--because both companies acknowledge the importance of game titles and securing relationships with game developers. Guess what? Most aren't exclusive any more because they can profit more by being multi-platform, and anyone who does choose to, who are they going to pick if these numbers stay the same for a year or more? What I look at is that the ENTIRE industry generated $7.1 billion this year, which is probably close to what MS has spent in the last two years to get to that wonderful 3.8%. What I would like to look at is how much expenses XBox has generated for MS and how much revenue... but of course they'll never break that out. But seriously, doesn't it seem reasonable that MS has spent AT LEAST 5 billion $$$ on the Box thus far? Presuming revenue is proportional to marketshare, that's 270 million for MS... in revenue. That's only 4.7 billion in losses, 1750% of their revenue in losses, you're right, big success for MS so far. |
| #3 By 3339 (64.175.40.247) at 10/29/2002 11:11:40 PM |
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I couldn't find any early loses after searching for a while, but I believe it was less than several billion, and that when they did, they developed technology, and chips, and maunfacturing so that they could establish a long term business which was also a profitable production business as well as a media/licensing/rights business.
I know it's not just sheer momentum because they sold 10 million units in about two months--after XBox being out for nearly a year with two years of advertising. A time period where MS was lucky if they were able to sell 500,000 units. That's not game title revenue after console purchase, that's new units. I know it took Sony three years to get to 56% of a market that was evenly carved up between two major players, who's systems were still largely cartridge-based and old gen. I know it took Sega from 1993 to 1998, 5 years, to go from 57% of the market to 3% after having a flop of a gen, after Nintendo declining under its own weight as well, after other next gen attempts from Atari and etc... So how long does it take to bring Sony down from 92.4% to what? What percentage of the market does MS have to grab a solid hold of from Sony for MS to get to breakeven, nevermind profit, nevermind market leadership? Is Sony experiencing any of the problems of a Sega or Atari or smaller market Nintendo? Of course, I think PS3 and XB2 will be backward compatible? BOTH OF THEM. So where's the glaring disadvantage for the competition? Or advantage? Oh, that's right we aren't repeating '96 with cartridges are we? Brand name recognition? If the situation continues for a year or so, people will recognize that the brand spends an awful lot for us to be aware of it even though we know that only 1 in 20 console owners has one... that's what I'll recognize. This post was edited by sodajerk on Tuesday, October 29, 2002 at 23:35. |
| #4 By 3653 (65.190.70.73) at 10/29/2002 11:56:30 PM |
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i confess, I read jerk's first comment. However, I successfully ignored his follow-up thoughts. How refreshing.
I have to say... that for a NEWBIE to come into a mature industry like console gaming... and even GET CLOSE to second place... is quite an accomplishment. Over 4 million consoles sold in 10 months is no small feat. KUDOS MICROSOFT. As an avid xbox gamer and XBox LIVE beta tester... I am more excited about XBox's prospects now... than ever before. XBox LIVE is absolutely amazing. Playing against the "computer" is boring, now that I know the unpredictability of a human opponent. Or, like in MotoGP... the unpredictability of FIFTEEN human opponents... all at once. FANTASTIC! PeterTHX, I agree with your comments regarding Nintendo. They are great games makers, but there just isn't room for them anymore in the console hardware business. One has to wonder if XBox 2 won't also be accompanied with a WinCE-based mobile XBox (competition for GameBoy Advanced). For those not following the XBox closely, here are the highlights... - 4 million units sold - 20 million xbox games sold. The highest initial ratio of games/console EVER - XBox LIVE launches in less than 3 weeks for a VERY nice price of $50/year. ALREADY, there are over 14,000 PAID XBox LIVE gamers online. - Over 300 games available by Christmas, compared to 240 gamecube games - Over 50 XBox LIVE games by the end of next year - A solid #2 status in the U.S. A close #2 in Europe. A distant #3 in Japan. fyi... the markets break down as U.S., then Europe, then Japan... in terms of dollars spent per year on consoles. - Halo has already passed the 2 million sold mark. - 2 other launch games bypassed 1 million units sold, back in June. - A purchase of RARE, gave Microsoft THE top notch games developer... and delivered a blow to Nintendo (who has been RARE's exclusive system FOREVER) - XBox distribution spreading through Asia, becoming available in 3-4 additional countries in the next few months. - Some SWEET system sellers coming by Christmas, including the EXCLUSIVE Unreal game, EXCLUSIVE Blinx, and EXCLUSIVE MechAssault. Some good links for you... - Independent analysis believe Nintendo will probably leave the console market - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/press/PR00023.htm - Independent analysis suggests Christmas sales will breakdown as 39% XBox, 27% PS2, and 17% gamecube - http://www.xengamers.com/sections/news/8418/ EDIT - added links This post was edited by mooresa56 on Wednesday, October 30, 2002 at 00:03. |
| #5 By 2332 (65.221.182.3) at 10/30/2002 12:09:17 AM |
| Xbox Live... that's all I gotta say baby... Xbox Live. |
| #6 By 3339 (64.175.40.247) at 10/30/2002 3:01:25 AM |
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Yeah, no problem, JWM. It's tough to comprehend numbers sometimes, but you just have to look at the PS2 numbers. Yes, it took them a year and a half to get to 30 million, but now they've revved up. They've hit their projection to 40 mil, which means they're likely to hit their year end (or soon after, I don't recall) 50 million. Last MS reported they were slightly under 4.5 million and were hoping for 5 mil end of year. That's not a momentum differenence, that is a preference / growth difference.
As for mooresa's blather: 1000% more units half the same game-to-unit ratio would yield, 70 million games sold, 350% greater # of games sold 300 titles? their % of the market (see above) yields less than 300 million in revenue, that's spreading profits, oops, I mean revenue, very thin over a year from now, MS will have 50 games already available on consoles on the net... and the only cost is building a billion dollar network? Wow. And a half million $ worth of subscriptions to pay down the cost? Sure, I guess they only need 1000% growth of online users just to break even on that upfront capital expenditure, never mind operating costs. PS users will probably have as many options by end of year 2003 with near zero cost to Sony their 3 best games total 4 million, but they will account for 40% of total sales this holiday? (by the way, that mean 296 titles sold 16 million, what's that? slightly greater than 54,000 units per game? Ouch!!!) Yeah, independent analysts also think Apple will be running x86 next year and encouraged the HP/Compaq merger too using the same % of total market revenue, just the purchase of Rare, and no other expenses at all, puts them 80 million in the hole If Nintendo leaves the console biz, they'll be more successful than Sega, but that doesn't mean the XBox is a success, does it? "I read jerk's first comment. However, I successfully ignored his follow-up thoughts. How refreshing." Ignored? Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.... ha, ha. Not a single thing you mention comes close to generating a profit over just the expenses it creates. This post was edited by sodajerk on Wednesday, October 30, 2002 at 03:46. |
| #7 By 2960 (156.80.64.132) at 10/30/2002 9:14:36 AM |
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My biggest concern about the XBox is the failure rates I read about and the short warranty (though they all have short warranties).
TL |
| #8 By 3 (62.253.128.5) at 10/30/2002 11:14:25 AM |
| #12 - contrary to what everyone likes to state, the failure rate has actually been lower than the PS2's. |
| #9 By 3653 (65.190.70.73) at 10/30/2002 11:00:50 PM |
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JWM - so you just ignore the other 99 comments and focus on Blinx? LOL.
I stand by my statement... BLINX is also a SYSTEM SELLER. Contrary to your flawed logic, a SYSTEM SELLER isn't always a critically-acclaimed game. But I'm sure you haven't played a video game in 10 years, so I don't expect you to know that. |
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