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IDC: Servers to make mild recovery | |
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| Time: 07:51 EST/12:51 GMT | News Source: CNET | Posted By: Robert Stein | ||
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Server sales are expected to return to modest growth by 2004 because of wider use of Linux and Windows, but the increase won't be enough to carry the bruised market to the level of its glory years of early 2000, IDC research shows. Server sales of about $49 billion in 2002 will stay flat in 2003, then begin a steady growth to about $58 billion in 2007, analysts at IDC's Enterprise ServerVision conference said Thursday. Although server makers such as IBM, Sun Microsystems, Hewlett-Packard, Dell Computer and Fujitsu stand to benefit from the growth, nobody expects a return to the nearly $70 billion in spending from 2002. | ||
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| #1 By 16451 (65.19.16.208) at 5/25/2003 1:49:26 PM |
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>>> Linux? 2 billion
With sales increasing from $750 million to $2 billion in 3 years. If only all the companies in my portfolio did that well... and especially considering that the customer doesn't even have to pay for the product! |
| #2 By 3653 (209.149.57.116) at 5/25/2003 7:11:22 PM |
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RH7.3 ... you just dont get it. You are comparing Linux 4% to Windows 60%. Thats not the right comparison.
As an investor, I can buy into a SINGULAR company that is the market leader at 60%. Or As an investor, I have no idea where to invest to get into that 4% action. Do I invest in SUSE? RedHat? IBM? Who? Because I dont have but a finite amount of $ to risk on Linux's growth. Basically, I have to distribute that 4% across dozens of companies. With Windows, I know its all Microsoft. Now, THAT is a real growth engine. |
| #3 By 135 (208.50.204.91) at 5/26/2003 12:43:55 AM |
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That's interesting, 60% of servers run Windows. That would tend to confirm my own anecdotal observations.
It definately disproves the FUD coming from the OSS zealots that Linux is the server leader, which is based off of distorted review of the Netcraft Apache/IIS numbers. Linux is doing well compared to Sun, but it is no danger to Windows, at least in the short 5-10 year term. |
| #4 By 16451 (65.19.16.205) at 5/26/2003 1:09:04 AM |
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>>> 60% of servers run Windows
The article said nothing of the kind. Instead, it said that 60% of the servers that shipped in 2002 were shipped with Windows. This figure in no way addresses the current install base. |
| #5 By 16451 (65.19.17.213) at 5/26/2003 2:19:08 PM |
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>>> so it is clear that Linux must have significantly less than 4% of the installed base
That statement is illogical in light of the situation that Linux is available for free, so a server need not be procured with a Linux license in order to be running Linux. >>> Unix probably has the highest install base, but that will be superceded by Windows this year or next since servers do get replaced as time goes on. The mere effect of replacing existing servers will most likely not drive a market share shift from Unix to Windows, since in business applications are usually not converted from one OS to another unless there is a clear cost benefit (which is usually never is, all other things being the same). Instead, OS and infrastructure shifts occur as new applications are developed and obsolete applications are retired. This post was edited by RH7.3 on Monday, May 26, 2003 at 14:20. |
| #6 By 16451 (65.19.17.213) at 5/26/2003 2:39:16 PM |
| #4 Personally, I think MSFT's price to earnings multiple is too high. I'm also a firm believer in divestiture, which I believe is one of the primary reasons I haven't shown a net loss in my market invesments in the last half dozen years. |
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