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Tablet PCs--only for the "bravest"? | |
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| Time: 11:01 EST/16:01 GMT | News Source: ZDNet | Posted By: Byron Hinson | ||
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Despite a showy launch Thursday, a new generation of tablet PCs is not likely to make much of a mark in the mainstream notebook market, according to a pair of studies. A report issued Wednesday by Gartner Dataquest predicts that the machines, based on a new version of Microsoft's Windows XP operating system, will account for just 1 percent of worldwide notebook shipments in 2003, for a total of about 425,000 tablet PCs. | ||
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| #1 By 7390 (198.246.16.251) at 11/6/2002 1:47:33 PM |
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"will account for just 1 percent of worldwide notebook shipments in 2003, for a total of about 425,000 tablet PCs"
some may argue that those number indicate a relative success. With most new items the adopt rate is slow initially. But clearly as the hardware improves and expands the upside is tremendous |
| #2 By 61 (65.32.170.1) at 11/6/2002 3:09:54 PM |
| Uhh, tere is nothing "US" about TabletPC's. They are sold world-wide, and thus, should be compared with the number of notebooks shipped worldwide. |
| #3 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 4:36:45 PM |
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Hmmm. What kind of English are you using where "US" equals "worldwide"? This post was edited by sodajerk on Wednesday, November 06, 2002 at 20:11. |
| #4 By 1643 (207.46.137.250) at 11/6/2002 4:43:57 PM |
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#6
That makes too much sense to expect from gartner... |
| #5 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 4:53:36 PM |
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"Plus, in my previous post I noted that the Tablet PC is not available in all languages so notebook sales in all languages should not be counted." I don't see any mention of language, or nationality, or English only being spoken in the US, or eliminating non-English notebook sales from worldwide figures... You didn't even post in the other article (if you are trying to draw upon that)... It's clear you are trying to coopt hamper's comment. I see you try to figure out the percentage of worldwide sales, not US market... So seriously, if IDC and/or Gartner's math is so screwed up, what freaking English did you learn and who taught you? You haven't even come close to the things you said, in defense of what you said...
Really, man, don't take offense, and don't try to cover your obvious mistake. Two different "analysts" have slightly different predictions for an unknown indicator? Oh my God! That makes no sense, it never happens! Your cover up is stupider than your initial post. This post was edited by sodajerk on Wednesday, November 06, 2002 at 16:55. |
| #6 By 2332 (12.105.69.158) at 11/6/2002 5:04:15 PM |
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5 bucks says TabletPCs account for roughly 20% of all new notebook sales by mid 2003. And account for 75% of all notebook sales by 2005.
That's assuming the most popular TabletPCs are going to be the ones that also include a keyboard. |
| #7 By 1896 (208.61.156.221) at 11/6/2002 5:24:09 PM |
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The difference between 425,000 and 575,000 is 150,000 or, in percentage more or less 35% .
It doesn't seem a small number to me. Getting back to the main subject I am wondering if there will be some powerful Tablet PC available right away. So far I read only about ones equipped PIII or Transmeta. |
| #8 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 5:30:21 PM |
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Parker, you're doing it again. I was saying you made no mention of these things you claim to have put in your post.
Now, you're speaking out of both sides of your mouth--either worldwide numbers will be close to equal to US sales or they won't. Which is it? Also, do you really think Chinese, Japanese, Korea, and English (I don't even need to mention the widely spoken Euro languages to illustrate this point...) represents most of the world? I would say about 80% of the computer-using world is represented there. Fritz, you're comparing the wrong number... If you equate the two numbers as representive of worldwide, which parker is either arguing for or against, I can't tell, one is 1% and the other is 1.3% of notebook sales. Not a big difference. |
| #9 By 1896 (208.61.156.221) at 11/6/2002 5:54:12 PM |
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Wait a moment,
Gartner says: 2003 Tablet PCs sales WORLDWIDE will be 425,000 units or 1% of total laptop sales which means that Worldwide in the 2003, 42,500,000 laptops will be sold. IDC says : 2003 Tablet PCs sales in the US ALONE will be 575,000 units or 4.4% of total laptop sales that will amount to 13,000,000 units. Bottom line the projected market shares for Tablet PCs, in 2003, will be: 4.4 in the US and 1% worldwide. This of course if the data we are using is correct. |
| #10 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 6:11:10 PM |
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That's my point, Fritz. The numbers are clear from each analyst and the difference is essentially negligible.
The question is: is this enough? It sounds like a good uptake, but you are talking about 1% divided between 20 companies... not such a big piece of the pie when those same 20 companies are fighting to survive with their share of the whole pie... On top of that, these are high cost, low margin devices in comparison to other notebooks... So the concern is perfectly valid, the projections are perfectly inline--maybe slightly conservative, maybe slightly pessimistic... but the question they are both asking is--as a new product category, will Tablets help the companies in the computer/notebook/tablet market? The answer is: not likely for a few years. |
| #11 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 6:39:41 PM |
| This comment has been removed due to a violation of the Active Network Terms of Use. |
| #12 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 7:02:59 PM |
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Parker you are off your rocker--you cannot project the same % of the US market up to the worldwide market, i.e. for every country. Will the marketshare in the US be the same as in Mozambique, Kuqait, Sierra Leone, etc., etc.? No, it probably won't even be as high in China or Europe, where there may actually be greater potential than in the US.
First, you mistakingly use US numbers for worldwide, then you say there's a huge discrepency, then you say the rest of the world isn't relevent anyway and only the US market matters which would suggest the numbers are rather close, then you say that the same markets in the US can be duplicated around the world which is antithetical to other markets not mattering. Before jumping all over these firms, step back, breathe, think, then think again before you post. And then post something other than what you were about to post. This post was edited by sodajerk on Wednesday, November 06, 2002 at 20:03. |
| #13 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 7:29:05 PM |
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To make things very clear:
Gartner predicts: US: <425,000 | ???? | ??% | Worldwide: 425,000 | 42,500,000 | 1% IDC predicts: US: 575,000 | 18,000,000 | 4.4% | Worldwide >575,000 | ???? | ??% The only reconciliation between these two datasets that can be attempted is: IDC predicts that the US accounts for 42.4% of the market prediction that Gartner has determined for worldwide notebook sales next year. If the US accounts for ~42.4% of worldwide notebooks sales, isn't it likely that we would account for an even greater % of worldwide tablet sales? Which means that worldwide market share would be substantially less than 4.4%, wouldn't it? This post was edited by sodajerk on Wednesday, November 06, 2002 at 20:46. |
| #14 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/6/2002 9:31:13 PM |
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errr, parker... you are doing it again. You cannot compare these two sets of number when they each reference different unknowns which are rather distant from each other... You are talking about several factors which can vary slightly.
1. what is the overall growth/decline in the computer market. 2. what % of that market is notebooks. 3. what % of that market is tablets. 4. what % of all of these markets is US or not. Slightly varying more than one of these numbers in one way can create some separation, but all in all the predictions would be fairly similar. Your numbers are ridiculous and obviously you've got typos (4.4% of the remaining 22.4 million notebooks being Tablets which would be 970,000 million + the US 575,000 = 1.5 million) so I'm not going to bother to point out that I think you are making the same point again that I objected to in #21, but you apparently agree with. How can projecting 4.4% for the rest of the world be cautious if the US kicks the rest of the world's ass--wouldn't it be more cautious to predict less than the US? How can you take IDC's prediction for US notebook sales, subtract it from Gartners prediction of worldwide notebook sales, then apply IDC's % prediction to that number and add IDC's tablet sales prediction to it, and think you are doing something that means anything? And you questioned their math? I suppose I encourage you by comparing 2 numbers--but you are running the numbers through the mill here. Why can't you see that if one thinks the market will grow at 6% and the other at 9%, and one thinks the US will be 65%of the tablet market, and the other thinks the US will account for 45%... that that would entirely account for the discrepency. No matter what the discrepency, these numbers are rather CLOSE. No matter the discrepency, they are probably wrong... Which isn't a good thing--they've both overestimated the value of MS "advancements" before. This post was edited by sodajerk on Wednesday, November 06, 2002 at 21:34. |
| #15 By 3339 (64.175.42.148) at 11/6/2002 10:01:03 PM |
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To point ut how silly your math is:
you are saying that IDC is predicting 4.4% of the worldwide notebook market will be tablets, and that that number is 1.5 million. But that leaves the worldwide notebook at 34.1 million. So that means (without checking on last year's or this year's figures) that if IDC predicted 0% growth in notebook sales, and was expecting it to remain 34.1 million, that Gartner is predicting 24.6% growth in the notebook market. Two predictions, that I am certain neither is making. If IDC is predicting even some growth, than Gartner's #s are even crazier for notebook growth. Or... maybe... your math makes no sense. |
| #16 By 61 (65.32.170.1) at 11/6/2002 11:58:11 PM |
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Jaz:
You clearly have no idea as to what a TabletPC is.... It's basically a notebook PC with digital inking technology, it runs on a special version of WinXP (which includes the inking software), and runs on standard PC notebook hardware.... FAR more powerful than a PDA, so don't equate it to one. |
| #17 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/7/2002 12:39:57 PM |
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Parker, 4% is 300% greater than 1%---presume these are both %s of a very large number like in the tens of millions--how far apart are the numbers?
And I'm daft... Twit. |
| #18 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/7/2002 12:59:05 PM |
| Parker, I've said it FIVE TIMES--you can't presume 4.4% for the whole world--obviously this percentage gets smaller and smaller as you add in worldwide markets. 1% of 35 mil is 350,000. 2% is 700,000. Both numbers are clsoe enough to 425,000 when looked at as a percentage of 35,000,000. If you don't get that--you are daft. |
| #19 By 3339 (65.198.47.10) at 11/7/2002 8:03:39 PM |
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moron, do you understand that the US is also part of the worldwide market place? Why are you subtracting it, taking a percentage, and then adding it back in dumbass? Your math is already screwed up there.
2% of 35 mil is 700,000. Even so -- let's use you 1+ mill number -- that's 2.9%. Is 2.9 percent all that different from 1%. No, this is normal variation among analyst predictions. Take a look at anything where multiple analysts are making a predicton and see if the margin of difference is always substantial less than 1.9% Otherwise, you've only proven yourself a fool when it comes to math and are jumping way overboard about a marginal discrepency. Thanks for giving me a laugh--when you calculated 2% of worldwide market and end up with a number equal to 2.9%-- Ha, ha, ha, ha!! That was a funny one! Thanks, you just made this boring @ss point worthwhile. |
| #20 By 3339 (64.175.42.148) at 11/7/2002 9:46:23 PM |
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Let's make things clear .5/35 versus 1.015/35 are not very different numbers. Simple.
Apparently you are blown away by a big number. That's sad. We are still comparing relatively small numbers when the notebook market is 30+ million and desktops is 100+ million and servers are whatever. It's entirely irrelevant if small numbers are seemingly disparate when compared just with themselves when you are actually predicting and estimating amongst the backdrop of a much larger number. Ask Bill Gates if there is a big difference between half a mil and a mil when you have several billion--he'll say no. |
| #21 By 3339 (64.175.42.148) at 11/7/2002 9:49:46 PM |
| I'm curious: do you really think that applying our estimated % of worldwide sales applied to non-US sales plus the % of US sales equals worldwide sales? I'm really curious about that one because they aren't equal--within the percentage of worldwide sales is the % of US sales but you are applying it to a smaller number and then adding a bigger number that should already be contained in the worldwide value. Completely wrong, and it's useless to try to teach you, I guess, if you beleive that. Do you really believe that? |
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